{ "title": "Cost-Benefit Model Shows Long-Term Recovery Housing at Ranch Could Save Illinois $113 Million", "modified_at": "2025-12-11 18:10:35", "published_at": "2025-12-05 17:00:00", "url": "https://media.2ndstoryfoundation.org/cost-benefit-model-shows-long-term-recovery-housing-at-ranch-could-save-illinois-113-million", "short_url": "http://prez.ly/6M2d", "culture": "en", "language": "EN", "subtitle": "Independent economic review finds substantial public savings tied to long-term recovery housing at the ranch project", "slug": "cost-benefit-model-shows-long-term-recovery-housing-at-ranch-could-save-illinois-113-million", "body": "

An independent economic review using a nationally recognized cost-benefit model finds that structured, long-term recovery housing delivers significant public value. The analysis for the Second Story Foundation’s ranch project shows projected gains in health outcomes, public safety, and workforce participation over 15 years.

These findings confirm what we see every day. Recovery becomes durable when people have time, stability, steady work, and a community that believes in them. When that happens, people rebuild their lives and strengthen the entire community.
\u200b
\u200b-Jim O’Connor, executive director, Second Story Foundation

The model, developed by the Fletcher Group, draws on peer-reviewed research and national data on healthcare use, criminal justice involvement, employment, and mortality. It applies standardized inputs and accounts for the non-linear nature of recovery to estimate both direct and indirect economic effects. The methodology is published in the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis and is widely used by policymakers to evaluate recovery housing and related programs.
\u200b
\u200bDownload the report here.

Total economic impact

Over 15 years, the program is expected to generate $125.7 million in total economic benefits on $12.3 million in total costs, resulting in $113.5 million in net benefits.

Return on investment

For every dollar invested, the ranch is projected to return $9.25 in social value. Even under conservative scenarios with delayed recovery benefits, the return remains positive at $6 per dollar.

Where the benefits come from

According to the model, benefits accumulate from four primary areas:

Projected reach

With space for 14 residents at a time and about 30 served per year, the program is expected to support 450 men over its first 15 years.

Why time matters

Recovery benefits do not begin immediately. The model accounts for the well-documented two to five year period it can take for long-term recovery to stabilize. Benefits remain strong even when delayed, although the total decreases with longer lag times.

Why success rate matters

Success rates are a key benchmark for funders. The calculator shows net benefits remain positive above a 20 percent success rate, and rise sharply at higher levels:

What this means for Illinois

The analysis shows that a long-term recovery program with structured work, housing stability, and community support produces significant public savings and measurable economic value. It also demonstrates that capital investment in recovery housing is cost-effective and aligned with Illinois’ approved opioid settlement abatement uses for treatment, housing, and long-term recovery support.

\n
\"Ryan
\n
\n Ryan Arnold\n Media Contact\n \n
\n

 

", "mainvisual": { "thumbnail": "https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/b80679ae-ff6a-4bdc-86b1-06a8cf267f96/-/scale_crop/250x250/center/-/format/auto/", "large": "https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/b80679ae-ff6a-4bdc-86b1-06a8cf267f96/-/preview/500x500/-/format/auto/", "original": "https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/b80679ae-ff6a-4bdc-86b1-06a8cf267f96/" }, "header": { "large": "https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/b80679ae-ff6a-4bdc-86b1-06a8cf267f96/-/format/auto/", "release": "https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/b80679ae-ff6a-4bdc-86b1-06a8cf267f96/-/format/auto/" }, "contacts": [ { "name": "Ryan Arnold", "company": null, "description": "Media Contact", "email": "ryan@desotostate.com", "website": null, "address": null, "telephone": null, "mobile": "(312) 600-7380", "twitter": null, "facebook": null } ], "author": { "first_name": "Ryan", "last_name": "Arnold" }, "format_version": 5 }